Hello all!
I haven't written a Diary here for a while so thought I'm writing this.
It's so great to see Democratic Community coming together after such a tough Primary.
My thought is that the Commonwealth of Virginia could send us into bead on Election Night very early if the new SUSA Virginia Poll is to be believed.
New Survey USA Virginia Poll/Oct. 4-5/666 Likely Voters/MOE 3.9
Presidential Race
Barack Obama (D) 53 %
John McCain (R) 43 %
Others 3 %
Undecided 1 %
Key Facts:
As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.
There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.
McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df79
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Senate Race
Mark Warner (D) 61 %
Jim Gilmore (R) 31 %
Gail Parker (G) 3 %
Bill Redpath (L) 3 %
Undecided 3 %
Key Facts:
Democratic Tide Almost Certain to Sweep Mark Warner into US Senate Seat Vacated by Republican John Warner: In an election for United States Senator from Virginia today, 10/06/08, Democrat Mark Warner defeats Republican Jim Gilmore 2:1, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Independent Green candidate Gail Parker gets 3% of the vote; Libertarian Bill Redpath gets 3%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, the Democrat Warner is up 4 points, the Republican Gilmore is down 3.
Mark Warner, who served as Virginia's governor from 2002-2006, continues to take the majority of voters in all demographic groups and all regions of the state. 28% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Warner. Jim Gilmore, who served as Virginia's governor from 1998 to 2002, gets 66% of Republican votes, 59% of conservative voters, and 54% of those who describe themselves as pro-life; Gilmore takes no more than 36% of any other group. John Warner, the incumbent Republican United States Senator, was first elected in 1978 and is currently serving his fifth term in office; he is not seeking a sixth term. John Warner and Mark Warner, who are not related, ran against one another in 1996; John Warner won then by 5 points and was re-elected to his fourth term. If Mark Warner is elected, both of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats will be held by Democrats; Jim Webb defeated Republican George Allen, who was running for his second term, in 2006.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=e7dc1b60-536e-444e-82bd-646342
82de72&c=77
Filtering:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.
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